Election latest: Reform overtakes Tories for first time in new poll - as minister hits out at 'ludicrous' Nigel Farage claim (2024)

By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent, in Puglia

Rishi Sunak has responded to a poll showing Nigel Farage’s Reform party ahead of the Conservatives, saying a vote for the party would "give a blank cheque to Labour".

Speaking to journalists at the G7 summit in Italy, he said: "We are only halfway through this election, so I'm still fighting very hard for every vote.

"And what that poll shows is - the only poll that matters is the one on July 4 - but if that poll was replicated on July 4, it would be handing Labour a blank cheque to tax everyone, tax their home their pension their car, their family, and I'll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn't happen."

Mr Sunak batted away the suggestion from Mr Farage that his party now represents the opposition to Labour - after a poll by YouGov put Reform on 19% and the Conservatives on just 18%.

The prime minister said voters on the doorstep "do understand that a vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10".

He attacked Labour economic plans, saying taxes would have to rise, and said they would not control the borders or legal migration.

Asked if the Tory party is faced with an "existential" threat, he said the publication of the two manifestos "there's a massive difference on tax" between the Conservatives and Labour.

"We want to cut your taxes at every stage of your life in work, setting up a business, buying your first home, when you're retired, you're a pensioner or if you have a family cutting taxes for everybody.

"The Labour Party consistently can't tell you which taxes they're going to put up, but they are going to put them up and as we saw yesterday, they're going to raise the tax burden to the highest level in this country's history. And that's the choice for everyone at the election."

The Conservative Party has been consistently attacking Labour over their economic plans, claiming that taxes will rise under a Starmer government.

But analysis shows that the tax burden will rise under the Conservative Party's plans as well.

Treasury minister Bim Afolami defended their plans, saying they are "costed, detailed and show that we are cutting taxes for working people and for families".

We put to him that the overall tax burden will continue to rise under their plans, albeit a little less quickly, but he said on "working people", taxes are "being cut".

He's pushed for an acknowledgement that the overall tax burden is rising under the Conservatives, and it will be the highest since 1949, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

But Mr Afolami replies: "No."

And he attacked Labour, saying the burden will reach "the highest ever" under a Starmer government.

Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard are in your podcast feeds with their guide to the election day ahead.

This is day 23 of the campaign. Jack and Sam discuss the latest polling which shows Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for the first time, the aftermath of Labour's manifesto launch, and what the Lib Dems are up to in the so-called Tory Blue Wall.

👉Tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam's wherever you get your podcasts👈

Email Jack and Sam: jackandsam@sky.uk

As we've been reporting, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times (more here).

We asked Tory Treasury minister Bim Afolami how worried he is about Nigel Farage's party, and he replied: "I'm not worried about it."

He said it's "one poll andthere are hundreds of others that don't show them at anywhere like that".

"But even in that one poll, it shows the danger that if you do not vote Conservative, if you're a Conservative-minded person, a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer."

Mr Afolami said it is "ludicrous" for Mr Farage to have stated last night that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour.

He defended his party's offer of tax cuts and a strong economy as a "very clear and compelling programme" - and rejected any notion that they would make a deal with Reform to stave off the threat from them.

"It's an election - we're not doing deals with anybody."

Beth Rigby has revealed how she decided on a "narrative" before quizzing the Labour and Tory leaders at Sky News's special event - and how a morning run almost scuppered everything.

Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak took turns for a 45-minute grilling at Sky News' Battle For Number 10 in Grimsby, with questions coming from a representative audience.

First to interrogate both leaders was political editor Rigby, who has lifted the lid on what it's like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) the big event.

"Kay Burley told me when I first came into telly 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'," she told former Labour MP Margaret Hodge on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

"So, I took these two mottos into this very intense interview prep… you get loads of information and you start to try and work out what's the narrative that you want to tell."

The secret, she said, is to look at everything and then "distil it" until you have a clear "narrative arc".

"With Starmer, the thing really was - how can you trust this guy? That was the premise," she said.

"But for Sunak, it was like, you say you've got a clear plan, you say you're going to deliver… so, what's the Conservative record? But more importantly, what's your record?

"Because you've actually been prime minister. You made five pledges, and then there was a broader question about what were the betrayals to the British people."

But disaster almost struck before the event had even started.

"The night before, I woke up at, like, five in the morning, fully awake," she said, adding she could "feel the adrenaline".

So, she decided to go for a run.

"I just saw I'm coming to the end of the road. And I went to turn round, and, as I turned, I nearly ran into a moving car. So, I nearly got run over," she explained.

Not the kind of car crash anyone would have expected that day.

Listen to the full podcast here:

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Email the team electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

As we're reporting, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times.

It put Nigel Farage's party on 19%, ahead of the Conservatives on 18%.

He wasted no time in declaring his partyis "now the opposition to Labour".

The poll was carried out after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched the Conservative manifesto earlier this week.

It shows Reform up two points, with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all down one.

• Labour: 37% (-1)
• Reform: 19% (+2)
• Conservatives: 18% (nc)
• Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
• Green Party: 7% (-1)
• SNP: 3% (+1)
• Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc)
• Other: 2% (+1)

The voting intention survey was done on Wednesday and Thursday, with 2,221 people taking part.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, said the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

"Because of the geography of their support, Reform are not projected to win many seats, but they could still cost the Conservatives wins in narrowly contested seats across the country," he said.

"In many places, this will make the difference between a constituency returning a Conservative or Labour MP."

Nigel Farage couldn't have hoped for better news as he strode on to the stage to debate on TV against Penny Mordaunt, Angela Rayner and rivals from the smaller opposition parties.

The dramatic news his Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll, on 19% to the Tories' 18%, meant he had his trademark letter box grin on his face for virtually the whole debate.

He began by declaring in his opening remarks: "We are now the opposition to Labour."

And he ended by boasting: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt."

Throughout the debate, Mr Farage had a jaunty swagger about him.

He laughed and scoffed at the anti-Brexit SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who was standing next to him, and appeared to relish being in a minority of one against the other smaller parties on Brexit and immigration.

The other story of this debate was round two of the bruising battle between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner over Labour's tax plans, while Ms Mordaunt conspicuously left Mr Farage alone and even engaged in some political flirting with him.

Read Jon's full analysis here:

Nigel Farage has declared Reform UK "the opposition to Labour" after his party overtook the Tories for the first time in a new poll.

In a fresh blow to embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a survey by YouGov for The Times put Reform UK at 19%, compared with the Conservatives at 18%.

The results came out moments before an ITV debate between senior figures in the seven main parties.

Mr Farage wasted no time in gloating about the poll, saying in his opening statement: "Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls.

"We are now the opposition to Labour."

In a flip of Conservative campaign rhetoric, he also claimed voting for the Tories over Reform would enable a Labour government.

Read more from our political reporter Faye Brownhere:

Good morning!

It's day 23 of the general election campaign, and this time in three weeks, we could be waking up to a very clear picture of who will be running the country for the next five years.

But there's a still a long way to go until polling day. After manifesto launches this week, today is slightly less intense.

There's plenty going on, however - here's what's making the headlines:

• Nigel Faragehas declared Reform UK"the opposition to Labour" after a poll showed the right-wing populist party has overtaken the Conservatives;
• Speaking in a multi-party ITV debate last night, Mr Farage attacked senior Tory Penny Mordaunt on her party's record, and as a result of this new poll, declared a "vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour";
• The Sky News Poll Tracker, which takesthe most recent poll from each pollster active in the last 28 days to average out where each party sits, shows support for the Tories continuing to fall;
• But it also shows that Labour's support has slipped a couple of points over the last 10 days or so;
• Speaking of the official opposition - the party is continuing to hammer the message of economic stability, with shadow chancellor Rachel Reevesexpected to be out and about today;
• Shadow health secretary Wes Streetingis promoting Labour's plan to tackle mental health and get people back into the labour market, and he will visit a men's mental health charity today;
• The Conservative campaign is taking a back seat again today to the G7 summit in Italy, which Rishi Sunak is attending;
• We are expecting to hear from his loyal deputies, however, as the Tories continue to attack Labour's economic plans, particularly in the wake of their manifesto launch yesterday;
• Lib Demdeputy leader Daisy Cooper will be out on the campaign trail promoting her party's National Food Strategy, committing an extra £1bn to the farming budget as it continues to try to appeal to rural and traditional Tory voters;
• We are also expecting to see the SNPdeputy leader Keith Brownon the campaign trail, promoting its campaign to ensure all Scotland national team games can air free on terrestrial TV.

We'll be discussing all of that and more with:

• Bim Afolami, Treasury minister, at 7.15am;
• Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, at 7.30am;
• Wes Streeting, shadow health secretary, at 8.10am.

Follow along for live coverage of the general election campaign throughout the day.

Thanks for joining us on another manifesto packed day!

Unveiling his party's manifesto, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was offering a "credible" long-term plan to "rebuild our country" if Labour win the election on 4 July.

In an interviewwith Sky's political editorBeth Rigby, he said he "rejects the argument" tax rises are required to rebuild public services - as he insisted there will be "no return to austerity" under a Labour government.

We also saw Plaid Cymru launch its manifesto today, which had "fair funding" in Wales at its core.

To get an overview of how the party manifestos are shaping up so far, head over to our manifesto checker here:

And then there was a landmark poll to end the evening. Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives for the first time, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, says the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

We are are now pausing coverage for the evening. Join us on the campaign trail again in the morning. Goodnight!